FEBRUARY 10-11, 2014 , MOSCOW, RUSSIA Business hotel “Aerostar”, “Petrovskiy” conference hall 37, building 9, Leningradskiy Prospect, Moscow, www.aerostar.ru REGISTRATION DEADLINE: January 27, 2014
SPE TECHNICAL CONFERENCE
DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
FEBRUARY 10-11, 2014
Business hotel “Aerostar”, “Petrovskiy” conference hall
37, building 9, Leningradskiy Prospect, MOSCOW, RUSSIA
REGISTRATION DEADLINE: JANUARY 27, 2014
Detailed information: SPE_ATW_2014_Uncertainty_EN.pdf (500 Кб)
Registration form: SPE_ATW_2014_Uncertainty_Reg_form_EN.xls (50 Кб)
An important part of the field exploration, appraisal and development decision process is characterization and quantification of subsurface uncertainties, particularly in the initial phases when information is limited and investment maximal. For marginal and challenging fields, accurate appraisal and assessment of project downside & upside becomes even more crucial as development options carry a substantial probability of negative net-present-value. In fact, strategic upstream investment decisions are always based on an in-depth analysis of both opportunities and risks.
Effective management of uncertainties and lifecycle risks is critical to the success of oil and gas projects and is in fact the central challenge of the E&P business. The field development and management process covers a broad range of decisions (technical as well as commercial), involving all E&P disciplines (sub-surface, wells, surface engineering and operations) and functional domains, over a time period that can span 25-35 years in which the asset will go through several development phases (primary, secondary and tertiary recovery). The “objective or target function” for the asset in terms of production, recovery or business value may change over its lifecycle.
There are accepted E&P practices for describing, evaluating and handling risks and uncertainties in the course of a project/field development (probabilistic, deterministic, stochastic, scenario based or a combination of these). A distinction is made between the nature and treatment of risks, as potential future events that can influence project objectives, both strategic and tactical, and uncertainties which can have different sources, being model or data dependent.
This workshop will explore and discuss methodologies, processes and best practices in decision-making under uncertainty with the intent to share experiences across different disciplines and across different stage of a field development.
PROGRAM COMMITTEE CHAIRS
Thomas Graf, Schlumberger
Renaud Gauchet, Total
PROGRAM COMMITTEE MEMBERS
Ivan Damnjanovic, Texas A&M University
Sergey Kolbikov, Novatek
Yakov Volokitin, Salym Petroleum Development
Alexander Shandrygin, Gazprombank Neftegazservice
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME
- Session 1. Exploration & appraisal risk assessment, quantification and management
- Session 2. Development risks assessment: History match and production forecast
- Session 3. Decision process analysis: added information from uncertainties
- Session 4. Value-of-information
See also: SPE Training Course “Oil and Gas Economics and Uncertainty”, Instructor Rodney Schulz.
Should you have any questions about conference attendance and registration, please contact Uliana Dmitrieva (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.) or Anna Shalupina (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.), tel.+7 495 268 0454.
Detailed information: SPE_ATW_2014_Uncertainty_EN.pdf (500 Кб)
Registration form: SPE_ATW_2014_Uncertainty_Reg_form_EN.xls (50 Кб)